The big question being asked around the greater Los Angeles area today is not whether the Lakers can win game 3 in San Antonio… it’s whether it’s really “time” for the Dodgers to call up their uber pitching prospect, Sir Clayton Kershaw Esquire the III. This question really irks me. Yes, it’s true that Kershaw is only 20 years old. Yes, it’s true that he was drafted straight out of high school and has spent limited time in the minors… That’s all well and good but none of that matters. The implication here is that Kershaw will either implode or hurt himself if he pitches in the majors at this age. People really believe that something magical happens to a pitchers’ arm once he enters the big leagues, as if they hadn’t been throwing just as hard throughout their entire lives. If the kid’s going to get hurt, he’ll get hurt in the minors just the same. Why not get something out of him while you can if he’s destined to go down that road (which I don’t believe he is)? Young arms are often much stronger than older, beleaguered, veteran arms anyway. If the kid throws a 95 mph fastball with movement, why not have him throw it to big league batters instead of developing minor leaguers who have no business getting in the batter’s box against him? 

A few years ago, when Ned Colletti signed starting pitcher Jason Schmidt to a 3 year, $47 million contract, we were led to believe as fans that he’d help ace, Brad Penny, anchor the staff for the foreseeable future. Of course, since then Schmidt has hardly played at all and looks like he’s knocking on retirement’s door…but we already knew that. I’m not revealing anything new here. Coming into the ’08 season, the team wasn’t even relying on him to fill the 5th starter’s role, let alone anchor the staff. The real surprise so far this year has been the utter ineffectiveness of last year’s NL Cy Young Award runner up, Brad Penny and innings-eating workhorse, Derek Lowe. 

1. Jake Peavy, SD

Heading into the season, many Dodger fans expected that starter, Jason Schmidt, would be healthy enough to claim his role as the team’s 5th starter. Due to a few setbacks in training camp, his return is not on the horizon. He may prove to be healthy at some point during the season but it’s not something the team is counting on. So far, Esteban Loaiza has been taking the hill in his place. A once former all-star starter, Loaiza has regressed in recent years and is now heading to the bullpen (where he probably belongs). 

Weeks after a frustrating spring training wrapped up, Chad Billingsley is still struggling on the mound. During camp Bills was hit hard by opposing teams and saw his ERA rise to unacceptable levels. He claimed a new changeup was the reason for his early troubles. Veterans will often take time in training camp and exhibition games to work on new pitches that they would like to try out during the season. Sometimes the results are immediate and sometimes the results are disastrous. Unfortunately in Billingsley’s case it seemed to be the latter. Of course, spring training results are to be taken with a grain of salt. The emphasis is on getting ready for the season not playing all out for the win. Once Opening Day comes around players put their game faces on and stop experimenting with their pitches or their swings. 

I’ve been a bit surprised lately to see an inordinate amount of Dodger fans debate whether Chad Billingsley will ever become the ace that he’s been billed as for so many years. Many are even questioning whether or not the team should keep him or trade him away for a veteran pitcher who has already established himself. Personally, I have no idea what numbers they’re looking at because Bills is already the best pitcher on the Dodgers’ staff at age 23. Many Dodger fans will point to Brad Penny when asked who is the Dodgers’ best pitcher. He had a remarkable season last year and rivaled Jake Peavy as the best pitcher in the NL for much of the year. Penny won 16 games and posted an amazing 3.03 ERA throughout the ’07 season. Nonetheless, Billingsley was better. A true ace is a strikeout pitcher who can control the game on his own without having to rely on his team’s defense or the park he pitches in. A strikeout per inning is generally considered a must to be considered as an elite pitcher or a staff ace. There are many other contributing factors like strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) and walks/hits per innings pitched (WHIP) that distinguish an ace pitcher from the rest. Those are all stats that a pitcher directly controls. Wins and ERA are largely dependent on the offense and defense a pitcher has behind them. A pitcher may give up 5 runs and still win the game because his offense scored 6. On the other hand, a pitcher may have a shortstop and centerfielder who don’t have much range, allow more hits to fall and cause that pitcher’s ERA to skyrocket. It’s easy to see why baseball statisticians don’t factor in those stats when gauging the true value of a pitcher.
When these peripheral stats are taken into account, Brad Penny does not compare very favorably to a rival staff ace, Padres’ Cy Young Award Winner, Jake Peavy. Although their win total and ERA is comparable, their K/9, K/BB and WHIP most definitely are not. To give you an idea of the separation between the two I’ll give you a look at the numbers. As I previously stated, Penny won 16 games and posted a 3.03 ERA. Peavy bested him with 19 wins and a 2.54 ERA but those stats are much closer than the ones I’m about to show you. Here’s the real difference:

K/9
Penny – 5.84
Peavy – 9.67

K/BB
Penny – 1.85
Peavy – 3.53

WHIP
Penny – 1.31
Peavy – 1.06

Need I say more? As you can see, there is quite a significant difference between the two pitchers. Peavy is able to hold his own by striking out over a batter per inning, meaning he’s good for at least one out per inning on his own; the ball didn’t get put in play, the runners didn’t get moved over, there was no chance for a defender to make an error…he put away those batters on his own, no assistance required. He struck out a prodigious 240 batters in 223 innings. Comparatively, Penny struck out a measly 135 in 208 innings. So why am I bringing this up? How does this relate to Chad Billingsley? When you look at these underlying stats, Chad Billingsley stacks up much more favorably against Peavy…and he’s only 23 years old.

Billingsley struck out 141 batters in ’07. So what’s the big deal? Didn’t Brad Penny strike out 135? That’s only 6 more batters! That’s true, Billingsley did only strike out 6 more batters than Penny did but the distinction is in the number of innings pitched. Bills struck out those 141 batters in only 147 innings compared to 135 in 208, meaning he was good for nearly a strikeout per inning. His K/9 ratio was 8.53 which is extremely good for any pitcher, let alone a 23 year old. That stat alone is enough to put a pitcher that young into an elite category. There are some pitchers who squander their strikeout ability due to control problems and a propensity to put runners on base. It was commonly perceived by Dodger fans that Bills had a wild arm and lacked control. He did walk an exorbitant amount of batters in his rookie season (58 in 90 innings) but almost cut that number in half (per capita) in ’07 after walking 64 in 147 innings; giving him a K/BB ratio of 2.20, .35 points higher than Penny’s. These stats are indicators of what’s to come. Bills WHIP was still a little high last year (1.33) but could’ve been better had he pitched more innings and had better middle infield defense. It can also be argued that umpires didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt that was given to veteran pitchers who made similar pitches. It’s well known that umpires reward players who they feel have “earned it” and give them a call that they wouldn’t have given to a younger player. For example, if Greg Maddux grazes the lower corner of the plate with a breaking ball and is on the border of a strike or a ball, the ump will likely give a future Hall of Famer like Maddux the strike. If a young kid like Chad Billingsley throws the exact same pitch in the exact same spot, the ump likely wouldn’t give him the call because he hasn’t proven anything yet. That’s what happened to Bills in ’06. He wasn’t throwing the ball over the batter’s head…he was painting the corners and wasn’t getting the call like he was used to in the minors. Control is the one question left remaining around him and the fact that he’s made such a giant leap in his walk rate in the course of one season should signal that control is no longer an issue…and really never was.

When intangibles are taken into account, Chad Billingsley is the best pitcher on the Dodgers’ staff and that’s hard to argue. At the age of 23 his future is extremely promising. If he continues to evolve as a pitcher at the rate that he has been, he’ll be an all-star in no time. He’s the type of pitcher who could strikeout 200 batters in a season and win 20 games. Teams rarely find pitchers with that kind of talent in free agency, let alone their own systems. This is a guy who can carry the staff for the next decade barring any health issues or setbacks. He’s what is called a “cornerstone for a championship team”. Any team with World Series aspirations needs a pitcher who can control the game on his own; a pitcher who relies on no one but himself to get the job done; a pitcher who can routinely get himself out of jams via strikeout. That’s the kind of pitcher the Dodgers have in Chad Billingsley. Combine Chad’s ability with some of the other younger franchise players on the Dodgers’ squad like Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and James Loney and this is a team that is well on their way to the makings of something special. I’ve said this before in relation to Matt Kemp and I’ll say it again…Chad Billingsley is the kind of player you build around, not trade away. Trading away a pitcher with that kind of ability at such a young age age would undoubtedly be a mistake that the club would regret in the long-run. It’s unwise to mortgage the future for a quick fix. The collection of young players that the Dodgers have assembled could very well put them in contention for championships for the next decade…and it all starts with an ace pitcher…and that ace is Chad Billingsley.

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